Looking Back and Looking Forward Glass half full or glass half empty? Glass half full = despite a large, rapid increase in interest rates, rampant inflation, wars in Europe and the Middle East and everything else, the market indices aren’t much off where they were two years ago. Glass half empty = we’ve made essentially …
Looking Back and Looking Ahead In Q3, the market narrative quickly shifted away from the hype around AI, and its levitating effect on “the Magnificent Seven” U.S. mega-cap stocks, to an intense focus on rising government bond yields, not just in the U.S. but across the developed world. U.S. 10-year Treasury yields touched 4.79% this …
The Rear View and the Front View The first half of 2023 is squarely in the books. On a price basis, year-to-date results have varied considerably across capital markets. In the U.S., for example, the S&P 500 was up 16% in H1, the Dow was up 4% in H1, and the NASDAQ Composite was up …
The Rear View and the Front View The first quarter of 2023 can be summarized in one word: VOLATILITY. Enthusiasm about China’s post-COVID re-opening, together with largely defensive investor positioning entering the new year, drove a strong January for equity markets. February brought a spate of hotter-than-expected inflation and employment data, stoking renewed fears of …
2022 Q4 Newsletter The Rear View and The Front View Happy new year, and good riddance to 2022! Yes, the past year saw the “everything bubble” finally burst. In the decade-plus prior to 2022, the combination of ultra-low manipulated rates by central banks and massive deficit spending by governments drove bubbles in multiple asset classes …
